ChrisCarterConsulting Blog
29May/090

Twitter + Investors = $255M Valuation. Huh??

Posted by Chris

Twitter is all the rage, but I am confused. Not by how to use Twitter, but how theoretically intelligent people can invest a total of $55M, at a perceived valuation of $255M, in a company that has no business model, no revenue streams and that has a retention rate of close to 60% after 60 days, meaning 40% of the users do not come back. Huh? Is there fear of missing a 10X ROI or the next Google? That wouldn’t be true as Google came out of the box with a business model.

I’ve read and reread recent articles in the WSJ and the NY Times. I watched an interview with Evan Williams on CNBC from the All Things Digital conference. The founders openly admit they have no business model, although they have a couple of ideas. They admit they have interviewed business oriented types but have “turned most of them down”. They offer that their plans for the future include managing growth and focusing on a new homepage. Huh?
My work with Venture Capitalists, Private Investors, new ventures and corporations relied on several items to start an investment conversation. Top priorities have always been a sound business model, a proven management team and exit strategy that returned value to the investors. Most investors also look for the product or service to provide unique value to the target market, whether the service solves a problem, creates an efficiency, reduces costs of an existing operation - there has to be something truly unique that offers differentiation from an existing practice, or a disruption in an existing paradigm. Does Twitter do any of this? Can’t I broadcast via text message, email or even on Facebook what I am doing, where I am located, or what I am seeing? Where is the differentiation? Many mobile apps are available that let me do these things. The one apparent difference is that I have to sign up to follow someone on Twitter - a person, group, product, event, company - who might otherwise not know that I am interested. I could poll people and receive instant replies from my “followers”, as David Pogue has done during speaking engagements. I’m sure there are other uses, but are they clear differentiators that could drive a viable business model, the current valuation and a perception of a sale of close to $1.0B? Does anyone remember Broadcast.com? Sold for $4.0B to Yahoo! and made Mark Cuban rich. How’d that work out for Yahoo!?

My other concern is that smart people in large corporations are already figuring out ways to use this FREE tool in their marketing campaigns to drive incremental revenue, market share and to develop loyalty programs for their products and services. Is the cart before the horse? If these folks figure out how to make money off of Twitter before Twitter figures out how to charge them for use of the service, can Twitter shut off the spigot and then ask to be paid for business models created by others?

Look, I’m sure the smart folks who have invested in Twitter have more information about the company and potential business models than the general public, but it sure doesn’t appear that way from interviews. They obviously have done their due diligence and vetting before making an investment, and had their number crunchers pick apart whatever financial models they were provided by Twitter. I also suppose they are sitting in Board meetings offering guidance to the founders and direction on building the company.

Perhaps the most valuable information is what Twitter stores on its servers from the Tweets of its users that can be parsed in ways akin to what Google does to generate very targeted advertising campaigns. And therein may lie the answer to the business model conundrum. Hmmmmm.

7May/090

Deal or…Not so Much

Posted by Chris

I've taken my time to study, and to try to comprehend, the deal the Government is pushing to revive Chrysler from bankruptcy.  Its not the classic deal one would see negotiated between heavy weights, like John Malone or John Chambers, one that would create a significant return on investment or entry into a new market.  Plain and simple, when you cut through the muck, its a deal being sculpted to pander to a constituency that helped elect the current President.  If you are a citizen of the USA whose tax dollars were invested in Chrysler you have received a pathetic return on your recent investment.  Let me explain.

The deal being crafted gives the Union, or a Trust on its behalf, 55% the new company and 1 board seat.  This equity stake is, theoretically, to be used to fund an underfunded pension plan for existing and retired workers.  The citizens of the USA, via their goverment appointed negotiators, will receive 8% of the company, will be asked to eventually invest another $6B + or - and will appoint 4 Board members.  And thanks for the initial $6B you invested, its now gone.  The Canadian government will invest $1.4B in the new Chrysler, will appoint 1 Board member and require that 20% of the production stays in Canada.  So far, of the 9 Board seats, two governments and the union will appoint 5 members, or a majority.  Are you seeing the light?  And, best of all, and perhaps the saviest deal maker at the table, Fiat will invest $0, thats rights $0, will "transfer technology" for the development of fuel efficient autos and will manage the business.  Let's see, I put no money in, I use my company's technology to attempt to expand my business into the USA and Canada, I get to run the company, AND I eventually can own up to 33% of the entity if it succeeds?  Where do I sign?  How much Chianti or Sangiovese was served during these discussions?  By the way, how profitable has Fiat been in its existing markets competing against the likes of BMW, Mercedes Benz, Toyota and other global automobile manufacturers?  And why did none of these other companies want a piece of this action?  Ask the Chairman of Damler Benz, who couldn't sell Chysler fast enough.

Fast forward to the labor negotiations.  The entity that owns 55% of the company will negotiate against itself?  How do you think they might turn out? 

If my recollection of GAAP accounting serves me correctly if an entity owns more than 19.99% of a business it must be reported in the investments section of its financials.  If it owns more than 50% of the entity its a subsidiary that has to be included in the consolidated financial statements.  Thus, the UAW will consolidate Chrysler's results into its own financial statements?  How will that work? Will it show an elimination for the union dues paid by Chrysler workers that account for all of its revenues?

This deal, plain and simple, is not so much a deal as it is an edict from the current administration to structure the business for the most benefit to the union and its members.  You, American taxpayers, got a bad deal.  You received no return on your initial investment ("we all must share the pain") and the existing bankruptcy laws of this country were usurped to create the structure that is now being proposed for Chrysler.  Lawsuits from previous senior creditors have already been filed.

Were the same considerations given to the Steel industry?  The Airline industry?  These proud USA industries, which had similar uncompetitive cost structures and employee benefit packages as the auto industry, were forced into bankruptcy court to sort out their outdated business models and cost structures.  They exited and survived to fight another day.  I have my doubts the deal being structured by the governement will allow Chrysler to do the same.  And you can bet if the company finds itself in financial distress your hard earned tax dollars will be used once again to save a dinosaur from extinction.

5May/090

Cablevision’s Deceptive Business Practices

Posted by Chris

I live in SW CT where my only option for cable TV service is through Cablevision.  I have a friend with connections to a senior executive at Verizon FiOS who confirms my residence is unable to subscribe to their service at this time.  Too bad.  I'd be on the phone in a second after the latest attempt by Cablevision to wring yet more dollars out of their existing subscriber base.  I believe they call this "monetization". 

You see, I woke today to find 16 cable channels removed from Family Cable package to which I subscribe.  Only a brief note on my most recent cable bill indicated this would occur.  I visited the Cablevision web site to search for any information about this action but nothing was listed on the home page, or anywhere else of logic for that matter.  It was only when I clicked on the Customer Service tab AND searched on the proper phrase that my query was answered.  Cablevision is "removing the duplicate analog feed of select channels. While these channels will remain in your current package, they require a digital cable box or CableCARD-equipped device to receive them on your television*".  Notice the asterick?  This takes you to the fine print that states you have to pay additional monthly fees for the digital cable box or a cable card, assuming your TV is cable card ready.  All in the name of adding more HD channels and "monetization".

I'm a digital savvy guy who has an HDTV with an HD Cable box, but I also have several analog TVs in other rooms in my home.  And I understand why Cablevision might wish to take these steps.  Why transmit duplicate channels and incur incremental costs to do so?  But as a consumer I have entered a contract with Cablevision for a certain service package.  That package does NOT state that I have to have a digital cable box or a cable card to receive analog signals on my "low tech" TVs.  It simply states the channels that are delivered to my home for a specific fee per month.  These channels are no longer available, hence Cablevision has broken the contract.  Should I still be required to pay a fee for services that are no longer rendered or provided?  I am still being billed for a cable programming package that includes almost 50% of the channels to which I originally subscribed for my analog TVs.  The message from Cablevision is clear.  Upgrade or else.

Its like going to the supermarket to buy your favorite item.  When you get there you notice the packaging has been changed but hope that, inside, the content is the same.  But something looks different.  While the package may be the same size, or slightly less, something has changed.  One glance at the weight tells the story.  The manufacturer has put less in the box, fancied up the packaging and kept the price the same.  It called a price increase folks.  Less product for the same amount.  This is EXACTLY what Cablevision is doing to its analog cable subscribers.  The "package" offers less but is the same monthly price.  The message is clear.  One way or another, if you remain a Cablevision customer, you are going to pay more for your cable programming service.  Its taking steps to move customers from the analog system, slowly but surely.  But the method they are using will surely drive a large percentage of these customers to alternative services.  While the number of TVs per household is still around 3, I doubt all of these TVs are digital or cable card ready.  I'm a business guy so I understand the simple economics of this transition.  I just hate the way Cablevision is going about it.  Its sneaky and deceptive.  FiOS can't get here fast enough for me.