Gary Vaynerchuk and Malcolm Pray – Different Decades, Same Message

Last week I had the opportunity to listen to two inspirational people speak, Gary Vaynerchuk and Malcolm Pray.  You may know about Gary Vaynerchuk through his Wine Library videos on YouTube, or perhaps you’ve attended an event where Gary was the keynote speaker or know of Vayner Media, his consulting company.  I doubt many of you know of Malcolm Pray.

Mr. Pray is a lot like Gary, although they are probably 40 years apart in age.  Mr. Pray had a passion for a product when he was a kid.  Cars.  He he saw a Delahaye at the 1939 World’s Fair when he was 12 and fell in love.  He collected every edition of Road and Track magazine, which he still has in his office, and consumed them. When he graduated from college his father wanted him to work on Wall Street.  Mr, Pray wanted to be in the car business.  So he joined a small dealership in Greenwich, CT, as a salesman.  Several years into this job the owner died, so Mr. Pray did his homework, made a presentation for the family of the deceased owner, one for VW and one for a local bank and convinced all parties to sell the dealership to him, and the bank to fund him.  He had a 10 year buy out with the family which he paid back in four.  He added Audi and Porsche dealerships to his portfolio.  He went on, over the next almost 50 years to become the largest Audi dealership by unit volume and margin in the USA.  Along the way he started collecting cars, like Gary Vee collected baseball cards, and now has a collection of more than 50 classic and exotic cars housed at what he calls the Pray Achievement Center.  More about that in a moment.

So how are Gary Vaynerchuk and Mr. Pray similar, although they represent two very distinct generations?  Their passion for business and people, and hustling.

Both believe in engaging people and creating lasting relationships that drive business.  As Gary says in his books, if you don’t work to earn the trust of your customer and develop a relationship with them, your competitor will.  And Mr. Pray says no matter what you do, you will be in the people business, and that your reputation is the greatest asset you have.

Both believe there is nothing in life you can not achieve.  Gary went from selling lemonade on street corners in Edison, NJ, and baseball cards from his vast collection, to leveraging the Internet to connect with customers and to drive sales for his family’s wine store.  And, as I’ve said, Mr. Pray grew from a passionate car salesman to owning several dealerships, amassing a fortune, a world class automobile collection and the country’s largest Audi franchise.

And both believe you have to hustle.  If you don’t a competitor will.  If you follow Gary you will see he is always traveling to events to speak, asking people what they need and leveraging social media tools – Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc. – to spread the gospel of Gary.  Mr. Pray did not operate in a world of social media, but he used basic people skills, looking people in the eye, shaking hands, training his sales team to be an extension of him, developing relationships with his clients before closing the deal.  Gary calls this Jab, Jab, Jab, Right Hook, the title of his next book.

Be passionate.  Gary admits he loves business and the hustle of it, whether its lemonade stands, baseball cards or wine.  One can adapt social media to reach your clients regardless of the product or service you sell.  Mr. Pray was passionate about cars and engaging people as well.  He preaches there are three kinds of people, those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who say “what happened”.  He encourages everyone to find their passion and make things happen!

One more item about Mr. Pray.  Since he sold his auto dealerships about 12+ years ago he has created the Pray Achievement Center (www.PrayAchievementCenter.com).  This facility houses his automobile collection as well as memorabilia from his youth to today, including awards his autos have won at a variety of shows around the world.  He uses this center to reach

1954 Jaguar from Mr. Pray's Collection

1954 Jaguar from Mr. Pray’s Collection

children, whom he invites from schools across the region, and to speak with them about his past.  He shares his story and tries to impress upon them how they can be just as successful in life if they “make things happen” as he did.  In the past 12 years he has hosted over 8,000 children at the center, giving them steps on how to become a millionaire, as he has become.  There is much more to his story, perhaps for another time.

Quite a week last week listening to these two motivating and inspirational people speak.  And although they launched their careers in two different decades, with access to two different sets of tools and technologies, these items are just a means to reach and develop a lasting relationship with your customer before someone else does.

And as Mr. Pray has followed his passion and amassed an amazing automobile collection, here’s hoping Gary Vaynerchuk one day fulfills his dream of owning the NY Jets.

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Cablevision’s Sports Programming Surcharge

Two days in a row, right?  Must be something really big for Chris to be at the computer two days in a row.  There is.

I opened my latest Optimum cable bill last night and found the newly levied Sports Programming Surcharge on the bill.  We read about the skyrocketing costs of cable programming all of the time.  We also read of the battles between cable operators (MSOs) and cable programmers (e.g. Viacom) over the MSOs having to take bundles of cable program channel in order to get the ones they want, and that most of the cable subscribers actually watch.

The feeling about this new surcharge is I, as a consumer, have no choice.  If I want to continue to receive my cable services from Optimum/Cablevision the company has the right to raise prices and assess fees at their whim and I have no recourse.  I am in a monopolists territory and really have limited options in replacing this service.

Fox Sports (United States)

Fox Sports (United States) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I just love the little insert in my cable bill too, explaining why “The Man” must take these actions.  First, it is rationalized sports programming is viewed by 99% of Optimum subscribers, so everyone gets to pay the fees.  Secondly, the sports programmers insist in being on the most basic levels, so again all of you share the pain.  And, by calling it a surcharge you, Mr. Consumer, can understand this is not going to Optimum.  No sir, its being passed right to ESPN and Fox Sports and the new NBC Sports Network.  Kind of like that line fee that appears on my telephone bill every month that Verizon swears it not their fault.

What I love most about the explanation is how Verizon FiOS and DirecTV introduced the sports programming surcharge first.  Its like when telling your mother your brother hit you first, so hitting him back is justified.  Gotta love the logic!

And then there is the argument about how programmers bundle networks, making MSOs take dogs with no viewer base to get the primary channels.  This is where the argument starts to feel like the subscribers are being used as a tool of Optimum in their law suit against Viacom.  Piss off one’s subscribers hoping they will take up arms in your fight against those bad guy programmers.

I also love the argument that the costs controlled by Optimum, the network related costs, are being managed responsibly.  Is that how Dolan has the money to buy the Knicks and Rangers and MSG and Radio City and…..you get my point.  Its not us, its them.  I can’t believe they put this stuff in an insert to their customers!  And Dolan’s soon to be ex wife, who was responsible for marketing and the branding change, just got promoted to President.  Great job honey!  I believe his brother-in-law was just promoted too.  Let’s keep the largess in the family!

And I just love the last paragraph.  “And stay tuned.  Its important to us that you, our customer, know where we stand”.  I don’t know where you stand, but I do know where you hand is.  In my wallet.

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Why a-la-Carte Cable Pricing Will not Reduce your Cable Bill

I’ve been rading a lot lately about efforts to reduce the cost of content (i.e. cable channels) on cable systems.  Recent actions include suits by Cablevision against Viacom and Verizon suggesting a pay per channel viewed model.  While many agree the cost of cable programming is outrageous given the actual amount of channels watched, here’s why a change to a la carter pricing or pay per channel viewed really won’t reduce one’s cable bill.

Economics.

Cable systems (MSOs) are capital intensive businesses.  It costs a lot of money to bury cables and build head ends and manufacture CPE, and to finance the debt upon which these networks are constructed.  This requires significant cah flow, and anyone who reads an annual report of a cable system can see how much cash these monopolists generate.  And the business models for cable programming are so lucrative, with two revenue streams, its no wonder Fox and other broadcasters are contemplating discontinuing their over-the-air broadcast services to combat the Aereo start-up, assuming the latter continues to win court battles.

Let’s look at this with some basic numbers.  Cablevision has approximately 3.0M customers in its market.  Homes passed in industry parlance.  Cablevision pays each cable channel a fee for each of

ESPN
ESPN (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

those homes who has access to, but not necessarily view, each channel.  ESPN, for example, charges the highest fees in the industry at more than $5.00 per home passed.  Thus, each month Cablevision pays ESPN $15.0M for the priviledge of broadcasting ESPN to its 3.0M homes passed.

What if ESPN were priced based on homes viewing the channel and NOT the homes who are passed.  If only 50% of Cablevision home passed actually “opt in” and watch ESPN, do you think the payment to ESPN will go down to $7.5M?  No.  My guess is there will be a scaled rate card based on the number of viewers who actually view the channel.  Hence, the rate card for ESPN if only 1.5M Cablevision subscribers watch ESPN could be as high as $10 per home who viewed the channel.

The pie is the same size.  The cable service provider has an imbedded asset base upon which they must have a signiicant ROI to generate enough cash flow to cover its costs and debt service, and make a handsome profit.  If program rates do not increase based on a-la-carte pricing or homes viewed, the cost of the pipe will most definitely increase, and that cost will be substantial as well.

Any way you look at it, your cable bill is not going down anytime soon.  Get used to it, or cut the chord and watch programming over the Internet.

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Analog and Digital Storm Survival Kit

Interesting past two weeks.  First a Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy strikes the region, making an unprecedented left turn towards the Jersey Shore.  And then a snow storm, named Athena (who comes up with these?) buries my town in 4-6 inches of snow.  Come ON!  Powerless for 8 days, one has to find ways to continue the activities of daily living, or ADLs in healthcare parlance,  Here are some things that helped me make it through the storm.

Good old analog phone that plugs directly into the wall jack.  Telephone company supplies its own power to the home via its phone line so this phone works, assuming the phone lines are not on the ground.

Battery powered radio.  Gotta have one, or two, or three.  Need batteries too.  This became my lifeline to changing events as the powerless days wore on.

A place to work?  The local hospital.  My town is fortunate to have a beautiful hospital with a great cafeteria and free wifi!  The waiting area for outpatient surgery is large, has a lovely fish tank and is quiet.  Please keep this between us!  Let the rest of the town folks go to the library, also a lovely place to hang out in my town.

Smartphone.  Kudos to Verizon Wireless.  The network did not fail in my area so I was able to keep up to date on Twitter and Facebook and emails when not at the “office”.

iPad with 3G.  While my neighbors were in the dark with no TV my wife and I used this device to watch the storms live on The Weather Channel and to catch up on TV shows we were unable to record on our DVR since Power was out.  I highly recommend to anyone buying a tablet get the 3G or LTE versions.

Access to Social Media.  As the powerless days wore on and the frustrations of my neighbors grew, they tried to storm the Bastille of the local power company, a sub station about 1/4 of a mile away.  The local police intercepted them each time.  Some got through by calling customer service.  Me?  Facebook and Twitter again!  By voicing my issues and concerns with the power situation at my community on Facebook I was able to connect with a power company representative who continued a dialogue with me even after power was restored.  I have read many times how entrepid travelers do this when flights are canceled or postponed.  So I tried it.  And it worked! Power was restored the next night.  Keep this in mind people.

Patience.  Losing power is one thing.  Lost homes and lives are quite another.  By using a combination of analog and digital technologies one can stay in touch with the world during disasters and manage their lives at the same time.  The ability to adapt and use the tools at one’s disposal is key.

 

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Debate Alternatives – Some Ideas for Testing the Candidates

Watching the third debate last night made me fidgety.  Just ask my wife.  I couldn’t sit through it.  I kept going to another room to check the score of the NLCS and the Bears Vs Lions on MNF.  As opposed to the latter two items the first seems so staged and crafted.  At this point most people have a good idea for which candidate they will pull the lever on the first Tuesday in November, so why not make this final debate one that will show Americans who the candidates really are and how well they can think on their feet.  Here are some ideas.

Presidential version of Chopped.  Give the candidates some funky ingredients and lets see if they can stand the “heat in the kitchen” when the expert chefs critique each course they prepare.

Presidential Pictionary.  Pit each candidate and their VP in the popular family game and lets see how well the really know each other and work together.

World of Warcraft Challenge.  The winner will have to lead the best military in the free world.  Let’s see if they can really do it in a this game.

Windows 8.  We’re in an information economy.  Let’s test their tech skills to see how quickly they can come up to speed on the latest Windows OS.  Many corporate CIOs are balking at the platform, for now.  What about the candidates.

Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader.  Self explanatory.  Game on!

Whose Line is it?  Let’s see some Improv.  Again, scene tossed out at random, different characters introduced as the scene develops, let’s see how they react.

Family Feud.  Pit the candidates and their teams against each other in topics about the economy, geography, trade, defense, education, etc.  Kissing by the host optional.

Better yet, Jeopardy.  Let’s see how much they really know about the position they could hold and the key issues.

Carly Rae Jepson, Call me Maybe video.  OK, maybe not this one.

Each party and their PAC’s (unaffiliated, of course) spend millions of dollars positioning and repositioning and twisting facts.  The debates were more of the same, complete with their own spin rooms and social media experts and fact checkers managing the results in favor of their candidate.

The best interaction between the two candidates was at the Al Smith Dinner in NYC. The lines were flowing and the contenders were relaxed.  Wouldn’t we learn more about the candidates and if they were forced to be themselves in unscripted situations?

Any other great ideas out there?

 

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Next Gen TV, What’s in it for Gen Next?

I attended CE Week NY 2012 on Wednesday.  Sitting in on a panel titled Next Gen TV I walked away with a couple of thoughts.

First, CE manufacturers are still enamored with developing devices based on wiz bang technology (think 3D) than user need or affordability.  The latest buzz is 4K, basically taking the current 1080 pixel structure times 4.  While the image may be breath taking, many technology pundits in the blogosphere believe this is overkill.  Relevant for the digital cinema in a town near you but not so relevant for the average consumer at home.  Consumers were forced, so to speak, to convert to digital TVs not long ago.  Shortly thereafter the 3D TV was thrust upon consumers as the “must have” device, and now we are being told all of these devices are obsolete.  You must have 4K.  Its no wonder the TV businesses of Sony and Panasonic are in such dire financial straights.

A second takeaway is what’s in this for Gen NEXT?  Consumers coming out of college and those in their early 30s are struggling with student loans, high unemployment and a lack of cash for these expensive devices.  This generation is also leading the way in the use of OTT and cable bypass alternatives, streaming many programs on their computers or tablet devices.  They can’t afford cable or satellite TV packages.  Why would those crazy folks who manufacture TVs think this rising consumer population will buy a 4k TV?  The panel did not discuss what, if any, devices, or solutions, were being developed to address this segment of the market.  Again, the focus of CE companies has been on technology, not the wallet of the consumer.  In this case, Gen NEXT’s wallet is empty and they are already loaded with enough debt to limit their ability to purchase a device of this nature.

A big push towards app-based user experiences is evident, which is how Gen NEXT interfaces with their digital devices.  Many TVs now come with app-based first screens, as do many DVRs, DVD players and game consols.  While this is great, the ability for the next generation of CE consumer to afford these devices is questionable.  In fact, an Xbox 360, Roku, Apple TV or other TV streaming device is more affordable and probably a better solution for this consumer as a multi-function platform.

I particularly loved the comment by the VP of Public Affairs and Communications of LG, John Taylor, in response to a question about the rumored “Apple TV”.  “There’s enough room under the tent” for everyone and they are not worried.  One thing in which Apple has excelled is simplifying user experience and integrating that experience across devices.  Smartphone, iPod, tablets, computers and next, TV.  Google’s Android platform is working to do the same, but Apple has nailed this ecosystem integration and has a legion of loyal followers who will ditch the traditional CE manufacturer’s products globally to incorporate the Apple TV into an already familiar interface for communicating and being entertained.

One thing still is evident.  The traditional CE manufacturers excel at hardware design and manufacturing, but fail at software development.  Exhibit 1 is SONY.

Lastly, the question of Dish Networks’ Hopper device arose with Nick Slater, VP of Video Product Management for Dish Network on the panel.  Probably the most recent disruptive innovation, as evident by the attention this is receiving from broadcasters and their lawsuits,  in CE but not a new concept.  It basically puts into the public domain what everyone with a DVR already does, fast forward past commercials, as was witnessed by a show of hands during the panel.  In fact, Mr. Slater described this as giving the consumers what they wanted, which is unlike the typical mandate of large CE manufacturers, who give the consumer what THEY believe is the next best thing for the consumer and hope it sells.

On a side note, I did like the new Skanz product.  It basically a wrist band with your personal QR code that is linked to your personal site at Skanz.  So instead of trading business cards one merely needs to download the Skanz QR code reader app for iOS and Android and scan the QR code on the wrist band to upload a person’s contact information.  It then can be automatically downloaded to your contact list.  Time saving and clever.

 

 

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How is Facebook “Like” your Grocery Store

Ever wonder about those coupons that come shooting out of the machine at the checkout counter of your local grocery store?  Every time I complete my order the machine issues coupons as if I hit the lottery.

As I thought through this process I started to realize all of the personal information I give my grocery store each time I hand over my “savings” card and my credit card to make the payment.  The former tells the store exactly who I am so it can connect my purchases with me, the purchaser.  The latter gives Visa the same info, but that’s for another post.

When I am on Facebook I indicate the things I ”Like”.  Most users freely give Facebook a profile of themselves by posting who they are, what schools they attended, where they work, their age, what music, books and TV shows they like, who our friends are, etc.  This creates a very powerful profile that any advertiser would love to have.  One has the ability to limit how this personal information is used but the data is right there, thanks to me freely offering to put my life online.

Is the same so at the grocery store?  Does anyone realize how much the purchases they make at the grocery store provide a detailed profile of who I am, perhaps more than the deliberate choices I make, and the information I post about my life, on Facebook?  And think about the use of one’s Visa, Mastercard, or American Express Card.  They collect data on your spending habits across multiple venues, and even issue a report to you at year end recapping your expenditures.

I inadvertantly, but freely, tell my grocery store I like Coca Cola over Pepsi, Skippy over Jiff, wheat bread over white, Tropicana over Florida’s Natural, Sam Adams over Budweiser.  In doing so I am telling them what I “Like” without clicking a button.  Yet have I told them how they can use this identifiable personal information to target advertising to me? Isn’t the coupon racing out of the machine a form of advertising that is targeted to me based on the decisions I make in the grocery store?  Where can I go in the grocery store to make changes to my privacy selections that determine how this information is used and ultimately what ads are presented to me?  I’m sure their is a way, but it is not as obvious to me as what I can do on Facebook.  I go to my privacy settings, I check or uncheck the boxes.  Done.

We give up so much personally identifiable information in the grocery store that is used to target advertising to us.  Yet people are up in arms every time Facebook changes their privacy policy so they can offer us targeted ads that correspond to our “Likes”.  Same with Google and Google+.

And more technologies are being developed to capture our “Likes” in the closed environments in which we go about our daily lives.  Have you read about all of the investments being made in computerized systems for the car, some of which capture usage data for car rental or insurance companies, and many of which you won’t be told are present?  Will these systems include functionality for me to select to whom my driving habits or my personal entertainment selections can be reported?  Intel has set aside $100M to invest in this industry.  I tell people my new Explorer is a computer in an SUV chassis.  If only the MyFord Touch software functioned as well as the software on my iPhone.

Yet I digress.

I am not saying people shouldn’t care about how this information is collected and gathered.  My point is simply in our everyday lives we offer so much information based on where we drive, where we shop, how we use our smartphones, the channels we click on the TV, everything.  Yet we do it naturally in our daily routines without thinking about who is gathering the information and using data mining software to figure out who we are and how to reach us to make money from advertisers.  Should we be as concerned about this as we are when Facebook changes its privacy policy or its methods to advertise to us?

If you read this I bet you will think twice the next time you are selecting Skippy or Jif.

 

 

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Tumblr-ing Dice

“Tumblr has scant revenue and a nascent business model…and it raised $85M in venture capital”.  This is how the Wall Street Journal opened its article on Tumblr’s latest capital infusion that valued the company at $800M.

I want to point out from the beginning I am not a Tumblr hater.  They are growing rapidly in terms of users, unique visitors and page views.  They have a slick, user friendly, interface and presentation that makes reading blogs clean and fresh.  And user’s posts can be as simple as a photo.  They still pale in comparison to the top blogging services based on unique visitors – Blogspot at 340M and WordPress at 130M according to Doubleclick’s Ad Planner.

Tumblr just has “scant” revenue, no business model and an $800M valuation.  In December of 2010 the company raised $30M at a valuation of $120M.  Thus, in 8-9 months, with “scant” revenue, Tumblr’s valuation increased almost 6X.  How does this happen?

Most valuations begin with multiples of revenue, EBITDA, or Net Income based on the values of comparable companies.  With “scant” revenue these methodologies are useless.

One can only surmise the Venture Capitalists who invested in Tumblr looked at other metrics to infer a valuation.  My guess is they looked at things like number of users, unique visitors, total page views and growth in some or all of the above.  Since several of the participants in the latest funding round were also investors in LinkedIn let’s look at LinkedIn for comparables.

Using information from Doubleclick’s Ad Planner data from July 2011, LinkedIn had 80M unique visitors and 2.5B page views. At the same time Tumblr is listed as having 34M unique visitors and only 1.7B page views (NOTE: the WSJ article quotes the Tumblr CEO has claiming the page views are closer to 13B; also, LinkedIn now claims more than 100M users - full disclosure).   Based on the Doubleclick data LinkedIn has more than 2X the unique visitors and 800K more page views.  LinkedIn went public at a market capitalization of about $9.0B and as of 10/2/11 was trading at a Market Cap of just over $7.2B.  This would infer a reasonable “valuation” for Tumblr, using this data, of about $3.6B.  Let’s not forget LinkedIn had revenues in their last fiscal quarter ending June 2011 of about $121M.  Their trailing 12 month revenue was about $324M, making their market cap about 22X trailing 12 month revenue.  Seem high?  What does this say about Tumblr?

If you want to look at other comparable valuations based on revenue, The Business Insider 2011 Digital 100 World’s Most Valuable Startups, as of July 2011, lists Tumblr at #22 at the WSJ reported $800M valuation with, remember, “scant” revenue.  Coupons.com is listed at #21 at a $1.0B valuation.  Its revenues are reported at $100M, thus a 10X multiple to revenue.  eHarmony is listed at #23 at an $800M valuation.  Its revenues are listed at $300M or about a 2.7 multiple to revenues.  The multiples reflect the business model of each company based on how it derives revenue vis-a-vis its competitors.  Again, with hardly any revenue Tumblr is valued at a comparable level to companies who are generating at least $100M.  Fair?

One could say a paradigm shift is upon the investing community, one that attaches value to the aggregation of a community of online users to whom a business model can eventually be developed.  This could be driven by the fear of missing out on an investment in the next Google or Facebook.  The Venture Capital investment pools are raised to create a return on the investment for the limited partners.  Failure to deliver a return impacts the next funding round.  Perhaps there is a premium attached to the valuation by the venture capitalist that accounts for the higher level of risk they bear for investing in a business without revenues but with “potential” to create significant revenues.   I imagine there is also cache in having your firm affiliated with an investment in the next Google or Facebook.

The business model for these community aggregation sites becomes a debate amongst the investors as to which model will generate enough revenue and profitablility to validate the valuation to be pitched at the time an investee is IPO’d or purchased, one that will provide this return on invested capital for the VC firm.  Thankfully for the VCs they have compatriates who also buy into the valuation premises they are espousing, creating an exit for the VCs via IPO or acquisition at an even more elevated valuation.  To quote a former Econ professor of mine, “what a tangled web we weave”.

A school of thought back in the old days, you remember, 5 or 6 years ago, mandated companies had to actually have revenues and generate profits by properly managing their businesses for a valuation to be determined.  I understand the times are a changin’ but this still feels to me like a game of chance.  I have no doubt Tumblr, and others who are in the community aggregation business, will develop ways to generate revenue, probably advertising based or some level of premium service for users who desire advanced services a la LinkedIn.   But will these models truly validate the accelerated valuation placed on the company by its Venture Capital investors?  LinkedIn IPO’d at a valuation of about $9.0B and then was promptly downgraded by analysts at the same entities that argued for the $9.0B valuation.

It all seems like a roll of the dice to me, and in this case the Tumblr-in Dice.

 

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Streaming Media East Device Review

I attended the Streaming Media East Conference and Exhibits this week in NYC and wanted to share some thoughts about the variety of devices I gave the old test run in the Broadband Device Pavilion.

Devices were divided into basically four categories - streaming devices, like Apple TV, Boxee, Roku, etc., DVRs, Game Platforms, like PS3 and Xbox 360, and Disk Drives with streaming capability, like Western Digital and Seagate.

My favorite streaming device was the Roku, with the Boxee Box a close second.  Roku had an easy to navigate UI and a larger selection of content platforms available than the others.  It also had a large number of independent platforms that are web based to peruse, many for free.  Boxee supports a larger number of video and audio formats/codecs, comes with an SD Card slot and supports web browsing, which Roku does not.  But if you’re app crazy and could care less about techie stuff like codecs, Roku is a good selection for the price (under $100).  Apple TV is basically presenting the iStore on the TV.  You can purchase the same items on the TV via the Apple TV box as you can on your computer.  Its also the only platform where you can have access to iTunes and your music library, if that’s important to you.

TiVo is the DVR king, by far.  The combination of easy UI and functionality as a STB via its cable card slot offer an added benefit.

The Sony PS3 offers more technical features than its game platform competitors in terms of video and audio formats supported.  Of the models featured it also had the largest hard drive and the largest collection of the standard content platforms (i.e. Netflix, VUDU and Hulu Plus).  The Xbox 360 is the only platform to partner with ESPN, so for sports nuts this may be a better option.  Oh, yes, and Sony is dealing with that little network issue and security breach that has exposed >100M subs’ personal data to elements not interested in playing MMOGs.  Something to think about.

Interesting addition to this line up was the hard disk manufacturers.  Seagate and Western Digital diplayed several devices that are basically external hard disk drives with some streaming functionality.  And I mean minimal.  I’m not sure why a company would offer a hard drive device as a streaming solution when the market is headed the opposite direction.  Other major players (Apple, Roku) have removed the hard drive from their current devices.

I also had a chance to explore a cool Samsung TV.  The devices was attached to a blue ray disk player, which is where the streaming functionality was resident.  The Samsung representative indicated Samsung does offer 6  TV models that have the streaming functionality imbedded into the TV.  The UI was clear and displayed as apps would be on one’s smartphone.  More than 10 users profiles could be stored so any family member, unless you believe in large familes, could set up their own start page that would be displayed after logging into the system.  Several other Blue Ray players with streaming functionality and lots of apps were on display as well from Panasonic, Sony and LG, but the Samsung product was the standout, IMHO.

I am sure there are many other products out there that were not in the Broadband Device Pavilion, but this display gave a great overview of the technologies and devices available if one is interested in updating their home entertainment solutions, and perhaps cutting their cable bill dramatically.

 

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Flip Flop?

I am sure many fans of the Flip Digital Camera have been lamenting the demise of the device by its parent, Cisco.  Many news stories have cast the reason for the demise as the convergence of video capture on smartphones, an issue I have blogged about in the past WRT other devices (Flo-TV, MSFT Zune, Netbooks – RIP), but loyal fans of the device are shaking their head.  You loved the convenience of the device, the video quality and its built in editing tools.  Why, just last week, The View’s Sherri Shepherd (aka Mrs. Tracy Jordon on 30 Rock) had her Flip confiscated at Radio City Music Hall while attending the Charlie Sheen Torpedo of Truth tour, or whatever he is calling that travesty.

To me, something stinks about this announcement.  Look at a few quick facts:

1. Cisco purchased Pure Digital (Flip’s Parent) for $590M in stock, including 105 employees.  Cisco announced it is laying off more than 500 employees.  Did staff increase 5 fold in 2 years?

2. Flip has sold 2.5 million units in total in spite of the rapid growth of smartphones with video functionality

3. Flip, et al, account for only 1% of Cisco’s total revenue ($40.0B), around $400M.  Does discontinuing a product, and making such a public announcement of it, who’s revenue is a rounding error in a company’s P&L make sense?

[A location deep inside Cisco HQ]  We have a problem.  Shareholders are upset that our margins are eroding and our stock price hasn’t budged in 2 years (bouncing between 18 & 28).  We’ve invested lots of money in acquisitions and in R&D to develop a networking business for the home.  Our core corporate networking business is under pressure as cheaper alternatives are available and as companies move toward “cloud-based” service models.  What should we do? 

[Back to blog]  And the answer was kill the Flip?  This, my friends, is called a distraction.

The reality is Cisco’s other businesses, their core networking businesses, are struggling.  The Cable Set Top Box business is declining, including a decline of 29% year over year according to the latest 10Q Quarterly SEC Filing and forecast to continue to decline in the coming quarters.  Sales of network products for the home (i.e. Linksys) are also declining.  In fact, the latest 10Q reports sales of the Flip Video Recorder “OFFSET” the decline in sales of the Video Systems business.  So kill a small product that is contributing to sales and profitability?   Recall Cisco spent much more on the acquisitions of Scientific Atlanta ($6.0B) and Linksys than they did on Pure Digital, Flip’s parent.

The reality is the larger home networking businesses are in decline as consumers have a variety of alternatives now available for entertainment and home connectivity.  Younger consumers who are heaped with college loans and who are struggling to find jobs are not ordering cable service.  Even the large cable MSOs (i.e. Time Warner Cable, Cablevision, etc.), the ones who BUY the digital cable STBs are developing their own STB by-pass strategies called TV Everywhere, leveraging new technologies to distribute content to consumers on smartphones and tablets.

In addition, Cisco is in the midst of rolling out a new line of switches (Nexus 700 Series) that has a lower price and margin mix than the older product line (Catalyst 6500 Series – according to their 10Q).  They are also focusing on the transition of companies to virtualization, cloud-based services, Web 2.0 services, increased global company collaboration and the transition from IP4 to IP6 technologies.  All of this takes money and places Cisco in competition with other large corporations as technologies that enable these services converge.

Thus, Cisco’s decision to announce the demise of the Flip Video Recorder served as more of a management purpose (“look, we are working to fix the problems in our consumer segment”) to appease analysts and shareholders than it did to solve larger performance issues within the company.  This was more of a short term smoke screen, and where there is smoke, there is fire.

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